厦门空港(600897.CN)

Xiamen International Airport In line with expectations: We expect faster earnings growth in 2H

时间:11-08-23 00:00    来源:高盛高华证券

After the August 18 market close, Xiamen Airport reported 1H 2011 netprofit of Rmb150mn (+13% yoy), broadly in line with our expectation ofRmb154mn. Key positives include higher-than-expected revenue growthof 18.4% yoy, driven by 18% passenger growth yoy, a 4% yoy increase inaeronautical charge per flight, and 1.4% yoy increase in rental/retailrevenue per passenger in 1H 2011. Higher revenues were, however, offsetby higher costs (staff costs increased by 13% yoy) that led to a 1.3pptdecline in EBIT margin to 45%. Operating cash flow was roughly flat atRmb195mn in 1H11 and capex was Rmb60mn in 1H11 (from Rmb24mn in1H10) as the Rmb230mn re-construction of its car park commenced thisyear, and is scheduled for completion by end-2012.

What to do with the stock。

We lift our revenue growth forecasts to 17%/13%/14% (from 13%/13%/14%)as we raise our 2011E passenger throughput growth to 16% (from 12.5%)and raise our unit aeronautical revenue charge assumptions on betterthan-expected traffic growth year-to-date. However, we fine-tune our2011E/12E/13E EPS by -2%/-1%/-1% on the higher costs realized in the firsthalf. We cut our 12-m TP to Rmb17.70 (from Rmb18.80) based on targetEV/GCI of 1.85X (from 2.01X) underpinned by average 2011E-2013E CROCIof 19.9% (unchanged), reflecting a decline in sector Valratio since May2011. We see 28% potential upside to our 12-m TP. We expect the lowtraffic base last year in 2H10 and continued ramp-up of international flightsat Xiamen Airport to lead to even faster earnings growth in 2H11 (weforecast 2H earnings growth of 24% yoy). Risks: Unfavorable policies,political instability, higher costs, and higher-than-expected HSR diversion.